CSA Nationals

So, having spelled out my thoughts on the Rochester team, how do I see nationals playing out?

Well, it seems that the top four are clear: Trinity, Rochester, Yale, and Princeton. Trinity will likely be seeded #1. Rochester beat a Princeton team that was without 3 top players and Yale beat Rochester. All that's left is the Princeton-Yale match. This is crucial because it determines which of the three teams can avoid Trinity in the semifinals. The way the ranking system works, Rochester avoids the #4 seed if Yale beats Princeton (Rochester would be seeded #3 outright). If Princeton beats Yale, there would be a three-way tie with Rochester likely getting the #4 seed on individual matches won. Specifically, Rochester has gone 8-10 against the other two. If Princeton beats Yale, Princeton will have gone at worst 9-9 and will therefore be ahead of Rochester no matter what. However, in the unlikely event that Princeton beats Yale 8-1 or 9-0, Rochester will get the #3 spot (Yale will be at best 7-11, in this case). Because Princeton was missing 3 players against Rochester, it's anyone's guess how Princeton-Yale turns out, but 8-1 or 9-0 seems unlikely.

The wild card here, of course, is that I'm taking for granted that Trinity is head and shoulders above the others. Trinity plays all three before nationals, so we'll get to see whether this is actually the case. Having seen the Trinity team just a week and a half ago down here in DC, I'm cautiously optimistic that they have come back to the pack this year. Only time will tell, but this will be an interest next month.